FAQ
What is WhaleWatch?
WhaleWatch is a sonar for prediction markets. It tracks live Polymarket events, learns each market's normal trade-size distribution, and flags unusually large cash outliers — so-called whale bets.
How does whale detection work?
WhaleWatch first joins related fills from the same wallet, outcome and direction into a position episode, then evaluates that position against its exact condition market — never against unrelated outcomes in the same event. It must pass a robust threshold built from the median, 95th percentile and log-MAD, plus a liquidity-scaled dollar floor ($1,000–$10,000). LOW, MID and HIGH describe outlier strength, not insider probability.
What do BUY Yes, BUY No, SELL Yes and SELL No mean?
Every Polymarket market has outcome shares priced between 0¢ and $1. In a binary market, a 30¢ YES price is roughly the crowd's 30% estimate. BUY adds exposure to the selected outcome; SELL may reduce or close an old position. WhaleWatch calls a buy “new” only when it was first observed within 10 minutes of execution. Outlier tiers describe unusual size, not the chance of winning.
Does a HIGH whale flag mean someone knows something?
No. A whale flag is a signal, not a guarantee. It means a bet is unusually large for its market — which can indicate smart money, but can also just be a rich bettor with an opinion. We grade outlier strength; we never infer private knowledge or promise outcomes. Nothing on WhaleWatch is financial advice.
Is WhaleWatch free?
Yes. WhaleWatch currently has no checkout, paid subscription, card collection or automatic charge. If paid access is introduced after the provider is registered, it will require a separate and explicit decision by the user.
How do event reminders work?
Open any market and click 'Email alerts'. If that market produces a fresh Extreme BUY that passes all strict freshness, size, coverage and wallet-dominance rules, you'll receive a time-sensitive email with the observed whale entry, current outcome price and price-movement context. When an event time is available, you also get an email roughly 30 minutes before it starts and a wrap-up after it ends. Removing the reminder in your Profile stops those market-specific emails. Delivery depends on the live collector and email provider, so always verify the current market price in WhaleWatch.
What is the Daily Whale Brief?
It is an optional daily email and public page summarizing the largest eligible signals stored during the latest 24 hours. It is off by default, contains direct links to immutable evidence and can be enabled or disabled from your Profile.
Where does the data come from?
From Polymarket's public APIs (gamma-api and data-api). WhaleWatch is an independent analytics tool and is not affiliated with Polymarket.
Can I place bets through WhaleWatch?
No. WhaleWatch is information-only — we don't accept, place or broker bets of any kind.
Something else?
Use the contact form — every message receives a reference and email confirmation.